Current Status
By 2017, according to EVN’s report, the total installed capacity of Vietnam’s power source is more than 46GW, of which the coal power industry 17GW, accounting for about 37% (and about 0.85% of the total installed capacity of the global coal power industry). . The total output of electricity generated to the grid is 191.6 billion kWh, of which the investor is 62.6 billion kWh, accounting for 32.7%.
The share of Vietnam’s coal power industry is in the world average (37% in capacity and 32.7% in output compared to 38.1% in the world), but per capita coal power output is only is 793 kWh, equal to 61.5% per capita of the world (1,290 kWh) and very low compared to the per capita of many countries such as: Australia (6,494), Taiwan (5,402), Korea (5,144), USA (4,038), South Africa (3,961), Kazakhstan (3,572), Poland (3,492), China (3,145), Germany (2,915), Japan (2,703), Malaysia ( 2.294). In particular, Vietnam’s per capita electricity output is still very low, reaching only 2,029 kWh, equal to 59.8% of the world’s per capita and very low compared to industrialized countries. Thus, by 2030, if Vietnam increases coal power output 3 times compared to today, then Vietnam’s per capita coal power output (corresponding to a population of about 110 million people) will only reach 2,026 kWh/person, even lower than the average level of Malaysia, equal to half of Germany and too low compared to many countries in the region today. Thereby, proving that Vietnam still has room to develop coal power industry to meet electricity demand.
In total, by 2017 there were 27 coal power plants across the country, of which 22 were built in the North and North Central and 5 in the South.
Vietnam’s coal power industry is using two types of boiler technology commonly: Sprayed coal furnace technology (PC) and circulating fluidized bed technology (CFB), without pressure fluidized bed combustion technology (PFBC). ) and Combined Cycle Gasification (IGCC). The first supercritical PC thermal power plants to operate are Vinh Tan 4 and Duyen Hai 3 thermal power plants.
The combustion efficiency of anthracite coal in the PC furnaces of Vietnam is generally lower than the efficiency of burning bituminous coal in the PC furnaces of other countries in the world. Because Vietnam anthracite coal has low volatile matter content, high fixed carbon, difficult to ignite and hard to burn out, it is only applied in boilers with subcritical parameters. The average efficiency in 2012 of domestic coal power plants using PC boiler technology was only about 32%. Recently operated coal power plants, the average efficiency is about 35%, still lower than the design efficiency of the plant. Moreover, in PC boilers, the unburnt carbon content in fly ash is still high, leading to low power production efficiency and waste of coal resources.
Coal power plants have been contributing a significant part to the development of the country, however, during their operation, these plants have also generated a large amount of waste (gas, water and ash, slag) waste, materials and dredged material) at the same time having certain impacts on the environment and living quality of the surrounding communities.
As mentioned above, although Vietnam has a high growth rate of CO2 emissions, by 2017 total CO2 emissions only accounted for 0.6% of total CO2 emissions worldwide. On a per capita basis, Vietnam’s CO2 emissions in 2017 were only equal to 45.3% of the world’s per capita, 30.2% of China, 44.5% of Thailand, 24.8% of the world. of Malaysia, 15.2% of Korea, 22.1% of Japan, 21.9% of Germany, 12.9% of the US.
According to IEEJ’s forecast, by 2030, 2040 and 2050, the level of CO2 emissions from Vietnam’s energy sector under the Normal Scenario is respectively (tonnes of people): 3.0; 4.1 and 5.7; of Malaysia: 9.0; 9.5 and 10.3; of Thailand: 4.6; 5,6 and 6.6. Thus, compared with OECD countries, the US, Japan, Korea as well as the two most developed ASEAN countries, Malaysia and Thailand, Vietnam’s CO2 emissions by 2050 are still much lower. That shows that Vietnam is allowed and can continue to develop the use of fossil energy in general and coal as well as the coal power industry in particular at a reasonable level for socio-economic development.
The issues of environmental impact of coal power plants that need to be addressed are:
– Strictly control emissions from boilers with major pollutants including dust, CO2, SO2, NOx before being discharged into the chimney to disperse into the environment.
– Research on recycling and reusing of ash and slag, which is currently mainly discharged directly into the storage yard.
+ Strictly comply with regulations on hazardous waste collection and classification.
+ Thoroughly handle chemicals and high temperatures of the cooling water system.
Development orientation to 2045
The development objectives of the electricity and coal power industries are determined as follows:
– Total installed capacity will reach 130 GW in 2030 and 221 GW in 2045; The electricity produced will be about 489.5 TWh in 2030 and 922 TWh in 2045.
– Regarding the structure of power sources: by 2030, accounting for the largest proportion of 42.8%, medium and large hydropower 17%, gas-oil thermal power 17.3% and renewable energy sources (solar power, wind power, etc.) small hydropower and biomass power) 22.9%. In 2045, it will be reduced to 30%, medium and large hydropower 11.5%, gas-oil thermal power 18.3% and renewable energy will increase to 40.2%.
– Regarding the structure of electricity production: by 2030, accounting for the largest proportion of 45.9%, gas-oil thermal power 24.4%, hydroelectricity 14.1% and renewable energy (except large hydropower) 15.6 %. In 2045, the proportion will still account for the largest proportion of 41%, thermal power gas-oil 26.1%, hydropower 8.3% and renewable energy will increase to 24.6%.
– Building a flexible operating grid system with high automation capabilities from transmission to distribution; applying smart grid technology, applying technologies of the 4th industrial revolution.
Technology development orientation for coal power industry in Vietnam in the coming time is as follows: Low quality Vietnamese coal + waste oxide + by-products in coal mining process, proposed technology is CFB furnace, subcritical steam parameters for units with a capacity of 200÷300MW; Vietnamese coal of good quality (bran 5, bran 6A), blast furnace technology, subcritical and supercritical steam parameters, the unit has a capacity of 500÷1,000MW; Imported coal (mainly from Australia, Indonesia), blast furnace technology, supercritical and supercritical steam parameters, the unit has a capacity of 500÷1,000MW.
Forecast of coal demand for power generation
According to the new update on the development goals of the coal power industry mentioned above, the demand for coal for electricity (million tons) by 2020: 59.5; 2025: 86.0; 2030: 119.4 and 2035: 127.5. Thus, by 2030-2035, the demand for coal for electricity will be three times higher than in 2017.
The above-mentioned increase in coal demand for power generation is necessary and completely acceptable in all respects: electricity demand, coal use, the role of coal in ensuring energy security and greenhouse gas (CO2) emissions in our country’s energy industry as well as in line with the development trend of coal and coal power industry in the world, especially countries in the region.
Coal supply for power generation
Based on the current status of the remaining resources and coal reserves that have been explored, the domestic production of commercial coal according to the plan has been updated as follows (million tons): 2020: 44; 2025: 45; 2030: 53 and 2035: 55 million tons.
Of the total production of commercial coal, coal qualified for power production accounts for about 80%, specifically about 35 million tons in 2020, about 36.3 million tons in 2025, 39.8 million tons in 2030. million tons and in 2035: 39.5 million tons.
Thus, to meet coal demand for electricity production, Vietnam must import about 25 million tons by 2020; about 50 million tons by 2025; about 80 million tons by 2030 and about 88 million tons by 2035.