Situation of imported coal in Vietnam
Vietnam imported 859,600 tons of coal from Indonesia in January, down from 1.2 million tons of coal imported in the same month last year.
Australia’s coal supply to Vietnam also fell after holding steady in recent months amid China’s unofficial ban on Australian coal. Vietnam imported 673,650 tons of Australian coal last month, down nearly 400,000 tons from a year earlier.
Russian coal imports halved to 217,900 tons of coal in February from 487,500 tons last year.
Coal production situation in Vietnam
Vietnam’s coal production outlook remains stable as a range of power generation projects are planned and under construction. Vietnam is likely to continue to develop 15 planned coal-fired power projects with a total capacity of 18GW in the period 2021-2026, Institute of Sustainable Energy Research Institute of Energy Economics and Finance Analysis said last month.
Specific analysis of imported coal market in Vietnam in February 2021
Vietnam’s coal imports fell for the third consecutive month in February from a year earlier as industrial activity slowed amid the Lunar New Year holiday and the recent increase in the number of CoVID-19 cases.
Provisional customs figures show seaborne sales in February at 1.9 million tons. This is down from 3.3 million tons in the same month last year and from 2.99 million tons in January. Vietnam customs data does not distinguish between coking coal and thermal coal.
Rising freight rates may have capped interest on ocean freight at the end of February.
The drop last month followed a steady increase in demand for ocean freight last year, sending 2020 imports to an all-time high of 54.81 million tons, up from 43.77 million tons in 2019.
Production situation of industries in February 2021
Vietnam’s industrial production fell 7.2 percentage points year-on-year after rising 22.2 percentage points in January, as business activity slowed during the mid-February Lunar New Year holiday.
But the World Bank estimates Vietnam’s economy will grow by about 6.8 points this year, up from 2.91 points in 2020, supporting the outlook for electricity demand and coal imports. Vietnam’s economy has recovered more than other countries over the past year due to widespread business continuity during the CoVID-19 pandemic. Authorities have recently stepped up efforts to prevent the spread of new CoVID-19 infections in some parts of the country. Electricity demand has decreased as businesses such as bars, clubs, gyms, cinemas and restaurants have closed and strict social control measures have been enforced.
Total electricity production fell to 16.9TWh last month, down from 17.4TWh in February 2020 and 18.6TWh in January, according to the General Statistics Office (GSO).
Cement output in February reached 6.8 million tons, down from 7.1 million tons a year ago and 8.7 million tons in January. Vietnam also produced 1.9 million tons of crude steel last month, down from 2.19 million tons in January but up from 1.66 million tons in February 2020. The year-on-year increase could support the country’s coking coal volume.
Meanwhile, Vietnam’s domestic coal production outstripped imports in February. According to GSO provisional estimates, domestic production reached 3.22 million tons, down from 4.43 million a year earlier and 3.95 million in January.